Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3–0 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

FT

3 – 0

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

9/19/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska55%

×Draw22%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wólczanka W. PełkińskaExpected goals in this matchJutrzenka Giebułtów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.24

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.02

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.24

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska creates 63% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

1.57

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.43

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

0.90

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.57

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw

77%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Jutrzenka Giebułtów

78%

Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów

45%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

33%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

87%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

60%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

33%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

71%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

35%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

70%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

55%

level

22%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

23%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff