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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
1 – 1
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
9/21/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska44%
×Draw23%
Czarni Połaniec33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.73
Czarni Połaniec
1.46

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 85 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
67%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Czarni Połaniec
77%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
56%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
23%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
82%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
52%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
25%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
77%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
43%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
57%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.73

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
44%
level
23%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
33%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Czarni Połaniec

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska and Czarni Połaniec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.