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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
3/12/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska33%
×Draw24%
Chełmianka Chełm43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.42
Chełmianka Chełm
1.65

Chełmianka Chełm creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
57%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Chełmianka Chełm
76%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
67%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
15%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
76%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
41%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
17%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
81%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
49%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
43%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
33%
level
24%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
43%

Chełmianka Chełm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 0–2 Chełmianka Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.