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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
0 – 0
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska28%
×Draw24%
Avia Świdnik48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.27
Avia Świdnik
1.73

Avia Świdnik creates 36% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
52%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Avia Świdnik
76%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
72%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
12%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
72%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
36%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
14%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
82%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
52%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
37%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
28%
level
24%
Avia Świdnik scores more
48%

Avia Świdnik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 0–0 Avia Świdnik

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska and Avia Świdnik drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.