Woking 0–2 Reading: Result & Stats

Woking

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan 75' (pen)

7/23/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Laithwaite Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Woking12%

×Draw21%

Reading67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WokingExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

1.88

Woking

0.63

Reading

1.88

Reading creates 198% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.25

creates per match

1.25

2.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Woking

0.25

Reading

1.25

allows per match

Woking

2.50

Reading

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Woking+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Woking ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–115%

0–214%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Woking or draw

33%

Woking or Reading

79%

Draw or Reading

88%

Winning margin

Woking wins by 2+

3%

Reading wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Woking 1+ goals

47%

Woking 2+ goals

13%

Woking 3+ goals

3%

Reading 1+ goals

85%

Reading 2+ goals

56%

Reading 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Woking (draw refunded)

15%

Reading (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Woking at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Reading away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Woking attack 0.25 + Reading defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Reading attack 1.25 + Woking defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Woking scores more

12%

level

21%

Reading scores more

67%

Reading at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

Kelvin EhibhatiomhanPenalty

Woking

Reading

Manager: M. Doyle

Manager: Rubén Sellés