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Wohnbau Dietach vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
4/5/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 20DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach65%
×Draw20%
Union Rohrbach Berg15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wohnbau Dietach
2.16
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.94

Wohnbau Dietach creates 130% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach
2.18
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach
1.16
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw
85%
Wohnbau Dietach or Union Rohrbach Berg
80%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
35%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
41%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
88%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
63%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
36%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
61%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
24%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
81%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.18 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.16

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more
65%
level
20%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
15%

Wohnbau Dietach at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wohnbau Dietach vs Union Rohrbach Berg

Wohnbau Dietach beat Union Rohrbach Berg 5-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at DietachArena in Dietach.