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Wohnbau Dietach vs Gmunden — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gmunden
Gmunden
10/26/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach61%
×Draw19%
Gmunden20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wohnbau Dietach
2.39
Gmunden
1.31

Wohnbau Dietach creates 82% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach
2.18
Gmunden
1.47

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach
1.16
Gmunden
2.60

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par
Gmunden+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

Gmunden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw
80%
Wohnbau Dietach or Gmunden
81%
Draw or Gmunden
39%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
39%
Gmunden wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
91%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
69%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
42%
Gmunden 1+ goals
73%
Gmunden 2+ goals
38%
Gmunden 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
75%
Gmunden (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Gmunden away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.18 + Gmunden defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.39

Gmunden attack 1.47 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more
61%
level
19%
Gmunden scores more
20%

Wohnbau Dietach at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wohnbau Dietach vs Gmunden

Wohnbau Dietach and Gmunden drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at DietachArena in Dietach.