Wofoo Tai Po 1–1 Eastern: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Wofoo Tai Po

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eastern

4/20/2025

FA Cup · Semi-finalsMong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wofoo Tai Po20%

×Draw22%

Eastern58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wofoo Tai PoExpected goals in this matchEastern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.94

Wofoo Tai Po

1.06

Eastern

1.94

Eastern creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

3.20

0.67

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Wofoo Tai Po

1.33

Eastern

3.20

allows per match

Wofoo Tai Po

0.67

Eastern

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wofoo Tai Po ↓

Eastern →

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wofoo Tai Po or draw

42%

Wofoo Tai Po or Eastern

78%

Draw or Eastern

80%

Winning margin

Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+

Eastern wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals

65%

Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals

29%

Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals

Eastern 1+ goals

86%

Eastern 2+ goals

58%

Eastern 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)

26%

Eastern (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wofoo Tai Po at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Eastern away — creates 3.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wofoo Tai Po attack 1.33 + Eastern defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Eastern attack 3.20 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wofoo Tai Po scores more

20%

level

22%

Eastern scores more

58%

Eastern at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eastern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff