Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wofoo Tai Po vs Beijing Guoan — AFC Cup 2018

Wofoo Tai Po
Wofoo Tai Po
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
10/23/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Tai Po Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wofoo Tai Po55%
×Draw19%
Beijing Guoan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wofoo Tai Po
2.50
Beijing Guoan
1.67

Wofoo Tai Po creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wofoo Tai Po
2.33
Beijing Guoan
1.33

allows per match

Wofoo Tai Po
2.00
Beijing Guoan
2.67

finishing

Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wofoo Tai Po ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Wofoo Tai Po or draw
75%
Wofoo Tai Po or Beijing Guoan
81%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
45%

Winning margin

Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+
35%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals
92%
Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals
71%
Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals
45%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
81%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
50%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)
69%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wofoo Tai Po at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wofoo Tai Po attack 2.33 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Beijing Guoan attack 1.33 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wofoo Tai Po scores more
55%
level
19%
Beijing Guoan scores more
25%

Wofoo Tai Po at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wofoo Tai Po will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wofoo Tai Po vs Beijing Guoan

Wofoo Tai Po and Beijing Guoan drew 3-3 in AFC Cup on October 23, 2025.

The match was played at Tai Po Sports Ground in Hongkong.