Wofoo Tai Po 1–3 April 25: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Wofoo Tai Po

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

April 25

4/30/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wofoo Tai Po30%

×Draw21%

April 2549%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wofoo Tai PoExpected goals in this matchApril 25

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.15

Wofoo Tai Po

1.67

April 25

2.15

April 25 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

2.30

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Wofoo Tai Po

2.33

April 25

2.30

allows per match

Wofoo Tai Po

2.00

April 25

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

April 25+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wofoo Tai Po ↓

April 25 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Wofoo Tai Po or draw

51%

Wofoo Tai Po or April 25

79%

Draw or April 25

70%

Winning margin

Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+

15%

April 25 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals

81%

Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals

50%

Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals

23%

April 25 1+ goals

88%

April 25 2+ goals

63%

April 25 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)

38%

April 25 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wofoo Tai Po at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

April 25 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wofoo Tai Po attack 2.33 + April 25 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

April 25 attack 2.30 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wofoo Tai Po scores more

30%

level

21%

April 25 scores more

49%

April 25 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff