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Witton Albion vs Macclesfield — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Witton Albion
Witton Albion
FT
1 – 3
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Witton Albion9%
×Draw13%
Macclesfield77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Witton Albion
1.02
Macclesfield
3.08

Macclesfield creates 202% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Witton Albion
0.80
Macclesfield
2.75

allows per match

Witton Albion
3.40
Macclesfield
1.25

finishing

Witton Albion+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Witton Albion ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Witton Albion or draw
23%
Witton Albion or Macclesfield
87%
Draw or Macclesfield
91%

Winning margin

Witton Albion wins by 2+
3%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Witton Albion 1+ goals
64%
Witton Albion 2+ goals
27%
Witton Albion 3+ goals
8%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
95%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
81%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Witton Albion (draw refunded)
11%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Witton Albion at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Witton Albion attack 0.80 + Macclesfield defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Macclesfield attack 2.75 + Witton Albion defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Witton Albion scores more
9%
level
13%
Macclesfield scores more
77%

Macclesfield at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Witton Albion 1–3 Macclesfield

Macclesfield beat Witton Albion 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.