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Witton Albion vs Crewe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Witton Albion
Witton Albion
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
Unknown 90+1', 77'
L. Moore 90+4'
F. Roberts 79', 56'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Witton Albion11%
×Draw14%
Crewe76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Witton Albion
1.15
Crewe
3.14

Crewe creates 173% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Witton Albion
0.80
Crewe
2.88

allows per match

Witton Albion
3.40
Crewe
1.50

finishing

Witton Albion+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Witton Albion ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Witton Albion or draw
24%
Witton Albion or Crewe
86%
Draw or Crewe
89%

Winning margin

Witton Albion wins by 2+
4%
Crewe wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Witton Albion 1+ goals
68%
Witton Albion 2+ goals
32%
Witton Albion 3+ goals
11%
Crewe 1+ goals
95%
Crewe 2+ goals
81%
Crewe 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Witton Albion (draw refunded)
13%
Crewe (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Witton Albion at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Crewe away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Witton Albion attack 0.80 + Crewe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Crewe attack 2.88 + Witton Albion defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Witton Albion scores more
11%
level
14%
Crewe scores more
76%

Crewe at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
F. Roberts
77'
79'
F. Roberts
90+1'
90+4'
L. Moore

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Witton Albion 2–3 Crewe

Crewe beat Witton Albion 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: F. Roberts (56', 79'), ? (77', 90+1'), L. Moore (90+4').