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WIT Georgia vs Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
CANC
11:00
Zugdidi
Zugdidi
12/4/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

WIT Georgia42%
×Draw27%
Zugdidi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.35
Zugdidi
1.14

WIT Georgia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 24 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Zugdidi
0.96

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Zugdidi
1.42

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
68%
WIT Georgia or Zugdidi
73%
Draw or Zugdidi
58%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
19%
Zugdidi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
74%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
39%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
15%
Zugdidi 1+ goals
68%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
32%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
57%
Zugdidi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Zugdidi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zugdidi attack 0.96 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
42%
level
27%
Zugdidi scores more
32%

WIT Georgia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WIT Georgia face Zugdidi (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with WIT Georgia hosting Zugdidi. Match starts December 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.