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WIT Georgia vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samtredia
Samtredia
3/2/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 1Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

WIT Georgia39%
×Draw27%
Samtredia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.31
Samtredia
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Samtredia
1.11

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Samtredia
1.32

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
66%
WIT Georgia or Samtredia
73%
Draw or Samtredia
61%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
17%
Samtredia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
73%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
38%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
14%
Samtredia 1+ goals
70%
Samtredia 2+ goals
34%
Samtredia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
53%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Samtredia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Samtredia attack 1.11 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
39%
level
27%
Samtredia scores more
34%

WIT Georgia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Samtredia

WIT Georgia and Samtredia drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.