WIT Georgia 2–1 Saburtalo II: Result & Stats

WIT Georgia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Saburtalo II

I. Giritiladze 43'

D. Abakelia 42'

G. Gabrichidze 90'

4/24/2026

Liga 3 · Round 7Shevardeni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

WIT Georgia44%

×Draw26%

Saburtalo II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WIT GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.20

WIT Georgia

1.49

Saburtalo II

1.20

WIT Georgia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

2.26

creates per match

1.36

1.04

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

WIT Georgia

2.26

Saburtalo II

1.36

allows per match

WIT Georgia

1.04

Saburtalo II

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Saburtalo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw

69%

WIT Georgia or Saburtalo II

74%

Draw or Saburtalo II

56%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+

22%

Saburtalo II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals

77%

WIT Georgia 2+ goals

44%

WIT Georgia 3+ goals

19%

Saburtalo II 1+ goals

70%

Saburtalo II 2+ goals

34%

Saburtalo II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)

59%

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 2.26 + Saburtalo II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.49

Saburtalo II attack 1.36 + WIT Georgia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

WIT Georgia scores more

44%

level

26%

Saburtalo II scores more

31%

WIT Georgia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

D. Abakelia

43'

I. Giritiladze

90'

G. Gabrichidze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff