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WIT Georgia vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
10/19/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 29Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

WIT Georgia42%
×Draw26%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.46
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.27

WIT Georgia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.22

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.64

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
67%
WIT Georgia or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
74%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
58%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
77%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
43%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
56%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
42%
level
26%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
33%

WIT Georgia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: WIT Georgia 1–3 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Lokomotivi Tbilisi beat WIT Georgia 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.