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WIT Georgia vs Kolkheti Khobi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobi
3/5/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 1Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

WIT Georgia55%
×Draw23%
Kolkheti Khobi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.88
Kolkheti Khobi
1.13

WIT Georgia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 36 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Kolkheti Khobi
0.94

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Kolkheti Khobi
2.47

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
77%
WIT Georgia or Kolkheti Khobi
77%
Draw or Kolkheti Khobi
45%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
31%
Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
85%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
56%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
29%
Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
68%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
31%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
71%
Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kolkheti Khobi attack 0.94 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
55%
level
23%
Kolkheti Khobi scores more
23%

WIT Georgia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Kolkheti Khobi

WIT Georgia beat Kolkheti Khobi 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.