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Kolkheti Khobi vs WIT Georgia — Liga 3 2024

Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
10/2/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 21Paata Tatarishvili Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kolkheti Khobi33%
×Draw25%
WIT Georgia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Khobi
1.29
WIT Georgia
1.46

WIT Georgia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Khobi
1.59
WIT Georgia
1.50

allows per match

Kolkheti Khobi
1.41
WIT Georgia
1.00

finishing

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Khobi ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kolkheti Khobi or draw
59%
Kolkheti Khobi or WIT Georgia
75%
Draw or WIT Georgia
67%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
15%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
72%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
37%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
14%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
77%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
43%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
45%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Khobi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Khobi attack 1.59 + WIT Georgia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

WIT Georgia attack 1.50 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kolkheti Khobi scores more
33%
level
25%
WIT Georgia scores more
41%

WIT Georgia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolkheti Khobi vs WIT Georgia

Kolkheti Khobi and WIT Georgia drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on October 2, 2025.

The match was played at Paata Tatarishvili Stadioni in Khobi.