Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

WIT Georgia II vs Torpedo Kutaisi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

WIT Georgia II
WIT Georgia II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisiadvanced
8/7/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Zghvis Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

WIT Georgia II44%
×Draw23%
Torpedo Kutaisi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia II
1.77
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50

WIT Georgia II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia II
2.14
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.70

allows per match

WIT Georgia II
1.29
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.40

finishing

WIT Georgia II+0.00on par
Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia II ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

WIT Georgia II or draw
67%
WIT Georgia II or Torpedo Kutaisi
77%
Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi
56%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia II wins by 2+
23%
Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

WIT Georgia II 1+ goals
83%
WIT Georgia II 2+ goals
53%
WIT Georgia II 3+ goals
26%
Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals
78%
Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals
44%
Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia II (draw refunded)
57%
Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia II attack 2.14 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.70 + WIT Georgia II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

WIT Georgia II scores more
44%
level
23%
Torpedo Kutaisi scores more
33%

WIT Georgia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "WIT Georgia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WIT Georgia II vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Torpedo Kutaisi beat WIT Georgia II 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Zghvis Baza in Tbilisi.