WIT Georgia II 1–0 Samgurali II: Result & Stats

WIT Georgia II

1 – 0

Samgurali II

5/13/2023

David Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

WIT Georgia II25%

×Draw21%

Samgurali II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WIT Georgia IIExpected goals in this matchSamgurali II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.15

WIT Georgia II

1.41

Samgurali II

2.15

Samgurali II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.14

creates per match

3.00

1.29

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

WIT Georgia II

2.14

Samgurali II

3.00

allows per match

WIT Georgia II

1.29

Samgurali II

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WIT Georgia II+0.00on par

Samgurali II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia II ↓

Samgurali II →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

WIT Georgia II or draw

46%

WIT Georgia II or Samgurali II

79%

Draw or Samgurali II

75%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia II wins by 2+

11%

Samgurali II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

WIT Georgia II 1+ goals

76%

WIT Georgia II 2+ goals

41%

WIT Georgia II 3+ goals

17%

Samgurali II 1+ goals

88%

Samgurali II 2+ goals

63%

Samgurali II 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia II (draw refunded)

32%

Samgurali II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Samgurali II away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia II attack 2.14 + Samgurali II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Samgurali II attack 3.00 + WIT Georgia II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

WIT Georgia II scores more

25%

level

21%

Samgurali II scores more

54%

Samgurali II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Samgurali II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff