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WIT Georgia II vs Odishi 1919 — David Kipiani Cup 2020

WIT Georgia II
WIT Georgia II
FT
3 – 0
Odishi 1919
Odishi 1919
5/27/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

WIT Georgia II47%
×Draw24%
Odishi 191928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia II
1.66
Odishi 1919
1.23

WIT Georgia II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia II
2.14
Odishi 1919
1.17

allows per match

WIT Georgia II
1.29
Odishi 1919
1.17

finishing

WIT Georgia II+0.00on par
Odishi 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia II ↓

Odishi 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

WIT Georgia II or draw
72%
WIT Georgia II or Odishi 1919
76%
Draw or Odishi 1919
53%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia II wins by 2+
25%
Odishi 1919 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

WIT Georgia II 1+ goals
81%
WIT Georgia II 2+ goals
49%
WIT Georgia II 3+ goals
23%
Odishi 1919 1+ goals
71%
Odishi 1919 2+ goals
35%
Odishi 1919 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia II (draw refunded)
63%
Odishi 1919 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Odishi 1919 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia II attack 2.14 + Odishi 1919 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

Odishi 1919 attack 1.17 + WIT Georgia II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

WIT Georgia II scores more
47%
level
24%
Odishi 1919 scores more
28%

WIT Georgia II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "WIT Georgia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: WIT Georgia II 3–0 Odishi 1919

WIT Georgia II beat Odishi 1919 3-0 in David Kipiani Cup on May 27, 2022.