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WIT Georgia II vs Kolkheti Khobi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

WIT Georgia II
WIT Georgia II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobiadvanced
7/23/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Stadioni Mtskheta Parki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

WIT Georgia II41%
×Draw22%
Kolkheti Khobi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia II
1.91
Kolkheti Khobi
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia II
2.14
Kolkheti Khobi
2.33

allows per match

WIT Georgia II
1.29
Kolkheti Khobi
1.67

finishing

WIT Georgia II+0.00on par
Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia II ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

WIT Georgia II or draw
63%
WIT Georgia II or Kolkheti Khobi
78%
Draw or Kolkheti Khobi
59%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia II wins by 2+
22%
Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

WIT Georgia II 1+ goals
85%
WIT Georgia II 2+ goals
57%
WIT Georgia II 3+ goals
30%
Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
84%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
54%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia II (draw refunded)
53%
Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia II attack 2.14 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kolkheti Khobi attack 2.33 + WIT Georgia II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

WIT Georgia II scores more
41%
level
22%
Kolkheti Khobi scores more
37%

WIT Georgia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "WIT Georgia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: WIT Georgia II 0–4 Kolkheti Khobi

Kolkheti Khobi beat WIT Georgia II 4-0 in David Kipiani Cup on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Mtskheta Parki in Mtskheta.