Wissa Szczuczyn 0–0 Swit: Result & Stats

Wissa Szczuczyn

FT

0 – 0

Swit

8/18/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn30%

×Draw24%

Swit46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wissa SzczuczynExpected goals in this matchSwit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.69

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.31

Swit

1.69

Swit creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 103 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

1.83

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.00

Swit

1.55

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.83

Swit

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Swit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw

54%

Wissa Szczuczyn or Swit

76%

Draw or Swit

70%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+

13%

Swit wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals

73%

Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals

38%

Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals

14%

Swit 1+ goals

82%

Swit 2+ goals

50%

Swit 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)

39%

Swit (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swit attack 1.55 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more

30%

level

24%

Swit scores more

46%

Swit at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff