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Wissa Szczuczyn vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
FT
1 – 1
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
8/29/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn35%
×Draw25%
Sokół Aleksandrów40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.35
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.48

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.00
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.83
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw
60%
Wissa Szczuczyn or Sokół Aleksandrów
75%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
65%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
15%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
74%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
39%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
15%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
77%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
43%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
46%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
35%
level
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
40%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wissa Szczuczyn vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Wissa Szczuczyn and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Szczuczyn.