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Wissa Szczuczyn vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
FT
0 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
10/13/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn32%
×Draw25%
Pelikan Łowicz43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.28
Pelikan Łowicz
1.53

Pelikan Łowicz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.00
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.83
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw
57%
Wissa Szczuczyn or Pelikan Łowicz
75%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
68%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
14%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
72%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
37%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
14%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
78%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
45%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
43%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
32%
level
25%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
43%

Pelikan Łowicz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wissa Szczuczyn 0–0 Pelikan Łowicz

Wissa Szczuczyn and Pelikan Łowicz drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Szczuczyn.