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Wissa Szczuczyn vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
FT
1 – 4
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
9/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn33%
×Draw23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.46
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.73

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.00
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.83
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw
56%
Wissa Szczuczyn or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
77%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
67%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
15%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
77%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
43%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
18%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
82%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
52%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
43%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
33%
level
23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
44%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wissa Szczuczyn vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki beat Wissa Szczuczyn 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Szczuczyn.