Wismut Gera 1–0 Union Sandersdorf: Result & Stats

Wismut Gera

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Sandersdorf

3/22/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 17Stadion Am Steg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wismut Gera37%

×Draw23%

Union Sandersdorf41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wismut GeraExpected goals in this matchUnion Sandersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.76

Wismut Gera

1.67

Union Sandersdorf

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

1.73

creates per match

1.19

2.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wismut Gera

1.73

Union Sandersdorf

1.19

allows per match

Wismut Gera

2.33

Union Sandersdorf

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wismut Gera ↓

Union Sandersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wismut Gera or draw

59%

Wismut Gera or Union Sandersdorf

77%

Draw or Union Sandersdorf

63%

Winning margin

Wismut Gera wins by 2+

18%

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Wismut Gera 1+ goals

81%

Wismut Gera 2+ goals

50%

Wismut Gera 3+ goals

23%

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals

83%

Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals

52%

Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)

48%

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wismut Gera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Union Sandersdorf away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wismut Gera attack 1.73 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.19 + Wismut Gera defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wismut Gera scores more

37%

level

23%

Union Sandersdorf scores more

41%

Union Sandersdorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff