Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wismut Gera vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
5/17/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Stadion Am Steg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wismut Gera37%
×Draw21%
Budissa Bautzen42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wismut Gera
1.93
Budissa Bautzen
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Wismut Gera
1.73
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Wismut Gera
2.33
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Wismut Gera+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wismut Gera ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Wismut Gera or draw
58%
Wismut Gera or Budissa Bautzen
79%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
63%

Winning margin

Wismut Gera wins by 2+
20%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Wismut Gera 1+ goals
85%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
57%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
30%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
87%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
61%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
47%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wismut Gera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wismut Gera attack 1.73 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Wismut Gera defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wismut Gera scores more
37%
level
21%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
42%

Budissa Bautzen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Wismut Gera 2–0 Budissa Bautzen

Wismut Gera beat Budissa Bautzen 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Am Steg in Gera.