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Wismut Gera vs Auerbach — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Auerbach
Auerbach
5/31/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 30Stadion Am Steg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wismut Gera28%
×Draw21%
Auerbach50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wismut Gera
1.50
Auerbach
2.06

Auerbach creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Wismut Gera
1.73
Auerbach
1.79

allows per match

Wismut Gera
2.33
Auerbach
1.27

finishing

Wismut Gera+0.00on par
Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wismut Gera ↓

Auerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wismut Gera or draw
50%
Wismut Gera or Auerbach
79%
Draw or Auerbach
72%

Winning margin

Wismut Gera wins by 2+
13%
Auerbach wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wismut Gera 1+ goals
78%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
44%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
19%
Auerbach 1+ goals
87%
Auerbach 2+ goals
61%
Auerbach 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
36%
Auerbach (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wismut Gera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wismut Gera attack 1.73 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Wismut Gera defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wismut Gera scores more
28%
level
21%
Auerbach scores more
50%

Auerbach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wismut Gera vs Auerbach

Auerbach beat Wismut Gera 4-3 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Am Steg in Gera.