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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Świdniczanka Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
8/31/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 6Stadion Miejski w Skawinie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice48%
×Draw25%
Świdniczanka Świdnik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.60
Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.15

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.16

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.82

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Świdniczanka Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
73%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Świdniczanka Świdnik
75%
Draw or Świdniczanka Świdnik
52%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
25%
Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
80%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
47%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
22%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
68%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
32%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
64%
Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.16 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
48%
level
25%
Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
27%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 Świdniczanka Świdnik

Wiślanie Jaśkowice beat Świdniczanka Świdnik 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skawinie in Skawina.