Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1/27/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice49%

×Draw22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiślanie JaśkowiceExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.45

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.92

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.45

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

0.90

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

2.33

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

0.90

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

2.00

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw

71%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

78%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

51%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

27%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

85%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

57%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

30%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

77%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

42%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

62%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 2.33 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 0.90 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

49%

level

22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

29%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff