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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
1 – 2
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
8/16/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice41%
×Draw26%
Podhale Nowy Targ33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.44
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.26

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
67%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Podhale Nowy Targ
74%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
59%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
20%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
76%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
42%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
18%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
72%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
36%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
56%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
41%
level
26%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
33%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

Podhale Nowy Targ beat Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Milenium in Skawina.