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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
2/28/2026III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 20Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice39%
×Draw27%
KSZO 192935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.33
KSZO 1929
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 105 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
65%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or KSZO 1929
73%
Draw or KSZO 1929
61%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
17%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
74%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
38%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
15%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
71%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
36%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
53%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
39%
level
27%
KSZO 1929 scores more
35%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs KSZO 1929

KSZO 1929 beat Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Milenium in Skawina.