Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Garbarnia Kraków

K. Bociek 90+1'

D. Cholewa 76'

K. Dziedzic 19'

K. Durda 17'

10/10/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice48%

×Draw24%

Garbarnia Kraków28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiślanie JaśkowiceExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.67

Garbarnia Kraków

1.21

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.29

1.14

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.39

Garbarnia Kraków

1.29

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.14

Garbarnia Kraków

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw

72%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Garbarnia Kraków

76%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

52%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

25%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

81%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

50%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

23%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

70%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

34%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

63%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

48%

level

24%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

28%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

K. Durda

19'

K. Dziedzic

48'

D. Morys

76'

D. Cholewa

90+1'

K. Bociek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff