Wisla Plock 9–0 Warta Gorzów: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchWarta Gorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.08

Wisla Plock

2.60

Warta Gorzów

1.08

Wisla Plock creates 141% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Wisla Plock

2.04

Warta Gorzów

1.00

allows per match

Wisla Plock

1.17

Warta Gorzów

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Warta Gorzów →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

86%

Wisla Plock or Warta Gorzów

83%

Draw or Warta Gorzów

31%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

48%

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

92%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

73%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

47%

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals

66%

Warta Gorzów 2+ goals

29%

Warta Gorzów 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

83%

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 2.04 + Warta Gorzów defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.60

Warta Gorzów attack 1.00 + Wisla Plock defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

69%

level

17%

Warta Gorzów scores more

14%

Wisla Plock at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

M. Haglind-Sangre

24'

P. Krawczyk

26'

TrialistOwn goal

31'

J. Jimenez

55'

L. SekulskiPenalty

57'

G. Kuchko

80'

M. Famulak

83'

B. BorowskiPenalty

89'

O. TomczykPenalty

Wisla

Warta

🥅

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Mariusz Misiura

Wisla Plock substitutes

99Gradecki2Custovic3Kukulka6Pomorski11Famulak17Misiak19Edmundsson20Sekulski21Brzozowski27Borowski37Tomczyk53Lodzinski77Szymanski91Kuchko