Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wisla Plock vs Resovia Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
5/26/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 34Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock53%
×Draw23%
Resovia Rzeszów23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Plock
1.77
Resovia Rzeszów
1.08

Wisla Plock creates 64% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wisla Plock
1.86
Resovia Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Wisla Plock
0.97
Resovia Rzeszów
1.69

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par
Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw
77%
Wisla Plock or Resovia Rzeszów
77%
Draw or Resovia Rzeszów
47%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+
30%
Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals
83%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
53%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
26%
Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
66%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
29%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
70%
Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wisla Plock scores more
53%
level
23%
Resovia Rzeszów scores more
23%

Wisla Plock at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Wisla Plock 1–2 Resovia Rzeszów

Resovia Rzeszów beat Wisla Plock 2-1 in I Liga on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Płock.