Wisla Plock 2–4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Wisla Plock

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

J. Witek 68'

K. Pomorski 55'

D. Jaron 50'

K. Odolak 34'

K. Sommerfeld 26'

K. Los 12'

2/7/2025

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Wisla Plock57%

×Draw20%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.33

Wisla Plock

2.19

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.33

Wisla Plock creates 65% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

2.04

creates per match

1.50

1.17

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Wisla Plock

2.04

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.50

allows per match

Wisla Plock

1.17

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

77%

Wisla Plock or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

80%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

43%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

35%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

89%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

64%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

37%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

74%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

38%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

71%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 2.04 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.19

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.50 + Wisla Plock defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

57%

level

20%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

23%

Wisla Plock at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

26'

34'

50'

55'

68'

Wisla

Pogoń

Manager: Mariusz Misiura

Manager: M. Sasal