Wisla Plock 2–1 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Podbeskidzie

12/9/2023

I Liga · Round 18Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock51%

×Draw24%

Podbeskidzie25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.14

Wisla Plock

1.71

Podbeskidzie

1.14

Wisla Plock creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 85 away

1.86

creates per match

1.31

0.97

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Wisla Plock

1.86

Podbeskidzie

1.31

allows per match

Wisla Plock

0.97

Podbeskidzie

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

75%

Wisla Plock or Podbeskidzie

76%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

49%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

27%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

82%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

51%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

24%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

68%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

32%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

67%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Podbeskidzie attack 1.31 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

51%

level

24%

Podbeskidzie scores more

25%

Wisla Plock at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff