Wisla Plock 2–2 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Baník Ostrava

K. Pomorski 78'

S. Hamulic 36'

D. Owusu 63'

A. Gning 60'

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Wisla Plock45%

×Draw23%

Baník Ostrava33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.50

Wisla Plock

1.79

Baník Ostrava

1.50

Wisla Plock creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

2.21

creates per match

1.75

1.26

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Wisla Plock

2.21

Baník Ostrava

1.75

allows per match

Wisla Plock

1.26

Baník Ostrava

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

67%

Wisla Plock or Baník Ostrava

77%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

55%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

24%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

83%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

53%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

26%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

78%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

44%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

58%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 2.21 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.79

Baník Ostrava attack 1.75 + Wisla Plock defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

45%

level

23%

Baník Ostrava scores more

33%

Wisla Plock at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

33'

36'

60'

63'

78'

90'

Wisla

Baník

⚽

⚽

Manager: Mariusz Misiura

Wisla Plock substitutes

KaramarkoWieckowskiLeszczynskiWadasSekulskiRogowskiDariJuricBlaszkiewiczKrolKuchkoKunRadwanskiPomorskiHiszpanskiMisiak

Manager: Tomas Galasek

Baník Ostrava substitutes

60Hruby2Havran25Owusu