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Wisla Krakow vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
10/18/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 13Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Wisla Krakow45%
×Draw24%
Nieciecza31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Krakow
1.61
Nieciecza
1.29

Wisla Krakow creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 103 away

creates per match

Wisla Krakow
2.00
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Wisla Krakow
1.09
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw
69%
Wisla Krakow or Nieciecza
76%
Draw or Nieciecza
55%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
23%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
80%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
48%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
22%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
72%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
37%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
59%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more
45%
level
24%
Nieciecza scores more
31%

Wisla Krakow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisla Krakow vs Nieciecza

Wisla Krakow beat Nieciecza 2-0 in I Liga on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kraków.