Istiqlol 4–1 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

4 – 1

Regar-TadAZ

4/7/2019

Vysshaya Liga · Round 1Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Istiqlol65%

×Draw21%

Regar-TadAZ14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.78

Istiqlol

1.96

Regar-TadAZ

0.78

Istiqlol creates 151% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

2.86

creates per match

1.13

0.43

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Istiqlol

2.86

Regar-TadAZ

1.13

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.43

Regar-TadAZ

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

86%

Istiqlol or Regar-TadAZ

79%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

35%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

40%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

86%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

58%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

31%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

54%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

18%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

82%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.43 · 35 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.86 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.13 + Istiqlol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Istiqlol scores more

65%

level

21%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

14%

Istiqlol at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff