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Istiqlol vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
3/14/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Istiqlol63%
×Draw22%
Regar-TadAZ15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.88
Regar-TadAZ
0.80

Istiqlol creates 135% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 35 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
2.80
Regar-TadAZ
1.14

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.47
Regar-TadAZ
0.97

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
85%
Istiqlol or Regar-TadAZ
78%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
37%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
37%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
85%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
56%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
29%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
55%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
19%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
80%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.47 · 30 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.80 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.14 + Istiqlol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Istiqlol scores more
63%
level
22%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
15%

Istiqlol at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istiqlol vs Regar-TadAZ

Istiqlol beat Regar-TadAZ 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on March 14, 2026.