Dundela 4–0 Donegal Celtic: Result & Stats

Dundela

FT

4 – 0

Donegal Celtic

3/17/2018

League #561 · Round 21Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dundela53%

×Draw20%

Donegal Celtic27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundelaExpected goals in this matchDonegal Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.62

Dundela

2.33

Donegal Celtic

1.62

Dundela creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

2.86

creates per match

1.10

2.14

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Dundela

2.86

Donegal Celtic

1.10

allows per match

Dundela

2.14

Donegal Celtic

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par

Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Donegal Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Dundela or draw

73%

Dundela or Donegal Celtic

80%

Draw or Donegal Celtic

47%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+

33%

Donegal Celtic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals

90%

Dundela 2+ goals

67%

Dundela 3+ goals

41%

Donegal Celtic 1+ goals

80%

Donegal Celtic 2+ goals

48%

Donegal Celtic 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)

67%

Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 2.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Donegal Celtic away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 2.86 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.33

Donegal Celtic attack 1.10 + Dundela defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dundela scores more

53%

level

20%

Donegal Celtic scores more

27%

Dundela at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff