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Dundela vs H&W Welders — Championship 2018

Dundela
Dundela
FT
1 – 4
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
9/29/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dundela30%
×Draw22%
H&W Welders48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
1.57
H&W Welders
2.03

H&W Welders creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.47
H&W Welders
2.00

allows per match

Dundela
2.06
H&W Welders
1.67

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

H&W Welders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
52%
Dundela or H&W Welders
78%
Draw or H&W Welders
70%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
14%
H&W Welders wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
79%
Dundela 2+ goals
46%
Dundela 3+ goals
21%
H&W Welders 1+ goals
87%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
60%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
38%
H&W Welders (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.47 + H&W Welders defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

H&W Welders attack 2.00 + Dundela defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dundela scores more
30%
level
22%
H&W Welders scores more
48%

H&W Welders at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Dundela 1–4 H&W Welders

H&W Welders beat Dundela 4-1 in Championship on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Wilgar Park in Belfast.