H&W Welders 4–0 Dundela: Result & Stats

H&W Welders

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dundela

12/27/2025

League #407 · Round 22Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

H&W Welders59%

×Draw20%

Dundela21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.32

H&W Welders

2.28

Dundela

1.32

H&W Welders creates 73% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

2.30

creates per match

1.26

1.39

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

H&W Welders

2.30

Dundela

1.26

allows per match

H&W Welders

1.39

Dundela

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

79%

H&W Welders or Dundela

80%

Draw or Dundela

41%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

37%

Dundela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

90%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

66%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

39%

Dundela 1+ goals

73%

Dundela 2+ goals

38%

Dundela 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

73%

Dundela (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.30 + Dundela defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dundela attack 1.26 + H&W Welders defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

H&W Welders scores more

59%

level

20%

Dundela scores more

21%

H&W Welders at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff