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Wisłoka Dębica vs Tomasovia Tomaszów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
4/13/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica52%
×Draw24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.76
Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.15

Wisłoka Dębica creates 53% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Tomasovia Tomaszów
0.94

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.00

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Tomasovia Tomaszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
75%
Wisłoka Dębica or Tomasovia Tomaszów
76%
Draw or Tomasovia Tomaszów
48%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
28%
Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
83%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
52%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
26%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
68%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
32%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
67%
Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 0.94 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
52%
level
24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
25%

Wisłoka Dębica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisłoka Dębica vs Tomasovia Tomaszów

Wisłoka Dębica beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.