Wisłoka Dębica 1–1 Karpaty Krosno: Result & Stats

Wisłoka Dębica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Karpaty Krosno

11/18/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica57%

×Draw22%

Karpaty Krosno22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisłoka DębicaExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Krosno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.15

Wisłoka Dębica

2.00

Karpaty Krosno

1.15

Wisłoka Dębica creates 74% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

1.52

creates per match

0.94

1.36

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica

1.52

Karpaty Krosno

0.94

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica

1.36

Karpaty Krosno

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Karpaty Krosno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw

78%

Wisłoka Dębica or Karpaty Krosno

78%

Draw or Karpaty Krosno

43%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+

34%

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals

86%

Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals

59%

Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals

32%

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

68%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

32%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)

73%

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more

57%

level

22%

Karpaty Krosno scores more

22%

Wisłoka Dębica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff