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Wisłoka Dębica vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
3 – 1
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
10/24/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica59%
×Draw21%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
2.06
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.13

Wisłoka Dębica creates 82% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 20 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
80%
Wisłoka Dębica or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
79%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
41%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
35%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
87%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
61%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
34%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
68%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
31%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
74%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
59%
level
21%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
20%

Wisłoka Dębica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisłoka Dębica 3–1 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Wisłoka Dębica beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.