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Wisłoka Dębica vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
Zawislak 56'
F. Grzybowski 90+4'
M. Kleca 61'
K. Durda 18'
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica47%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.73
Garbarnia Kraków
1.33

Wisłoka Dębica creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
70%
Wisłoka Dębica or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
53%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
25%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
82%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
52%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
25%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
74%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
38%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
61%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
47%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
30%

Wisłoka Dębica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Durda
56'
Zawislak
61'
M. Kleca
90+4'
F. Grzybowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisłoka Dębica 1–3 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Wisłoka Dębica 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 12, 2023.

Goals: K. Durda (18'), Zawislak (56'), M. Kleca (61'), F. Grzybowski (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.