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Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
11/4/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica47%
×Draw23%
Czarni Połaniec29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.77
Czarni Połaniec
1.35

Wisłoka Dębica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 85 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
71%
Wisłoka Dębica or Czarni Połaniec
77%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
53%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
26%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
83%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
53%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
26%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
74%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
39%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
62%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
47%
level
23%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
29%

Wisłoka Dębica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec

Wisłoka Dębica and Czarni Połaniec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.